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Monday, March 02, 2009

House Bill 508: Tax Attack

posted by Susan Peterson at 10:25 AM

Q: What do a Houston pathologist, a University of Wisconsin-Madison economist, and state Rep. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, have in common?
A: HB 508.

The bill, authored by Kolkhorst, would require the comptroller’s office to spend $200,000 studying the effects of eliminating existing state taxes and the school property tax. In their place would be a statewide, electronically collected transaction tax, also known as an automated payment tax.

The system, developed by UW-Madison professor emeritus Edgar L. Feige, would tack a small tax (around 0.2 to 0.25 percent) onto every electronic transaction in the state. “Every transaction” would be, well, every time money goes from one person to another: a grocery store purchase, an accrual of interest, a major corporate acquisition. Because collection would be automated and electronic, cash transactions would not be taxed.

Right. So where does the Houston pathologist come in? He’s one of Kolkhorst’s constituents, according to Kolkhorst Chief of Staff Chris Steinbach. Bill Hermann has advocated national implementation of the tax since 2000, and he’s the one behind the bill. Hermann and his wife contributed $500 to Kolkhorst’s campaign in 2007.

A handful of blogs have already slammed the bill, claiming the tax would be regressive, or disproportionately burdensome on low-income folks. Kolkhorst’s office is aware of the bad buzz: “I don’t think we want it to be seen as some kind of regressive sales tax,” Steinbach says.

But the proposal’s regressive nature isn’t a bad assumption, according to Michael Mazerov, senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities—though it’s hard to say for sure since no one has ever tried a scheme like this. Already, Mazerov says, Texas “has a very regressive tax structure” because there is no income tax. Eliminating the school property tax, the sales tax and the margins tax, which are designed to make the system a little fairer to middle-class and poor people, could result in a higher burden on these groups. The transaction tax would tax items that aren’t taxed now, such as food and medical care. These items are exempt from the sales tax to reduce the tax burden on poorer people.

Hermann sees this as a non-issue, claiming the tax “is progressive, too.” He says wealthy people spend more money, so they’d shoulder more of the burden.

Another issue is so-called “pyramiding” or “cascading,” which could mean that big businesses would pay less tax than small businesses and consumers, according to Mazerov. Big businesses deal with manufacturers directly, so they might pay the tax just once when they acquire goods. Smaller businesses and consumers might have to absorb that tax when they buy the product further down the supply chain–and then pay again when they make their own transaction.

Uneven burdens aside, UT-Austin accounting professor Michael Granof has other concerns: “The implementation in just one state would be quite difficult.”

The potential for tax evasion would be high, Granof says, because the tax would only be collected electronically, and only in the state of Texas. That means that not only would cash transactions go untaxed; so would out-of-state transactions. Employers could start writing checks out of state. Not to mention fat cats with money in the stock market in Manhattan—how could their transactions be captured? For these reasons, Granof says, the study called for in Kolkhorst’s bill would almost certainly fail to accurately estimate how much revenue the tax would generate.

That study also might not produce objective results. Kolkhorst’s legislation would require the comptroller’s office to consult with an expert team consisting of two professors (one of law, one of economics) from Texas universities—but also “persons who pioneered the concept of the transaction tax” (there’s only one: Feige) and “persons who direct national projects on transaction taxes” (without a doubt, Hermann).

Comments

The article on the automated transaction tax, I beleive caught several persons, expert in their fields, a little off guard. I have answered these criticisms many times in the past, and if you follow the logic, I don’t believe the “off the cuff” reactions should stand.

First, the tax is regressive?, not so—it certainly would be if it were not for replacing sales tax, school oreinted property tax, business margins tax and excise taxes.  Here’s a 0.25% tax replacing a 7% tax on the goods a poorer person may be buying.  Their rent might also be considerably lowered as property tax is significantly reduced.  Their gasoline might be lower when the fuel excise tax is removed.

It is critical to the understanding of this idea to “get quantitative” quickly and actually calculate the tax.  So a family making $40K and spending $40K per year would only pay $200 to the state for the whole year.  Even if every business turned their side of the tax back on the buyer it would be $400. But why would stores advertising 40 and 50% off want to gouge the customer for another 0.25%, couldn’t they get a lot more out of advertising “NO TAX CHARGED”? That would not cost the business near the expense of advertising in the current environment.

Big business would pay the same small proportion of their transactions as small business, however, the dollars would be much more.  This tax falls heavily to business yet they will simply have to mark-up their prices one time at 0.25% to accomodate the tax into the future.  After all they are hit with a 2.5% inflation rate (10 times the tax) which happens every year and they survive just fine.  Think of the huge savings for business in accounting expenses, compliance and conveyance forms with data gathering for the State; then there’s the actual tax payments, property, excise, margins and, sometimes, sales taxes.  That is at least 40 times the magnitude of the transaction tax if it is only 10%.

“Too easy to avoid”.  Would you go to expensive and risky extremes to avoid such a small tax?  Cash—well you can tax the cash withdrawn and deposited but in between - have at it.  Cash is a very small percentage of the transactions and this “out” serves to further the progressivity at the lower end.

“Fat cats on Wall Street wouldn’t pay” - yes they would if their residence was in Texas and listed as such on their accounts.  Same is true of business operating and domiclied in the State. These issues are important for the legal experts to work out in the study proposed.  Many states have income taxes so you wouldn’t want to “reside” there.  This issue will be covered.

“People and business would leave the State to conduct ordinary business to avoid the tax”.  Au contaire—don’t you think the car sales and gasoline sales without sales tax and excise taxes would rise just a little near our borders.  Maybe industry would find it advantageous to recruit and locate their employees in a state with no sale, school property or excise taxes.  Business can pass such a small tax on to their customers if they choose to, and the market will allow.  So they end up with a big savings which is pro-growth for re-investment and employment. Remember, prices are frequently raised by 10 times the amount of the tax just to handle inflation.

Lastly, in the National model, which can be visited at http://www.apttax.com, the calculated tax base is arbitarily cut in half to accomodate changes in behavior—we would like to make the same assumption at the State level.

Posted by Bill Hermann  on  03/11/09  at  03:07 AM

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