Primary Focus on Texas
February 5th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Twenty-four states hold primaries and caucuses today. By the end of the night, many pundits expect, Sen. John McCain could have the nomination wrapped up. We’ll see. On the Democratic side, it’s anyone’s guess.
It’s quite possible that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will emerge from Super Tuesday with a decisive advantage. Many of the largest states — including the grand daddy, California — will divide some delegates based on vote percentages, making it difficult for either candidate to amass an insurmountable lead.
If the Democratic race remains competitive after Super Tuesday, the primary on March 4, when Texas and Ohio vote, could have a major role in determining the Democratic nominee. With 228 Democratic delegates, the Lone Star State will be the biggest prize left on the electoral map. At last Texas will matter for something more than just campaign cash. A recent poll had Clinton ahead 10 points here but with Obama gaining momentum across the country…
Since the Texas presidential primary might count after all, we decided to explore a heretofore ignored process — how the Texas Democratic Party awards its primary delegates. This being the Democratic Party, we waded in with the deep foreboding that can only come from having witnessed a state Democratic Executive Committee meeting. It was bound to be ridiculous and layered six ways from Sunday to be fair to everyone.
Even though Texas technically has 228 delegates to hand out, only 126 delegates will be pledged to candidates as a result of the March 4 primary. The other 102 delegates, which consist of Superdelegates (members of congress, DNC members and so forth) will be assigned later if needed; they come into play only if the primary fight reaches the floor of a brokered national convention. If Clinton or Obama wraps up the nomination before that, all the state’s delegates will eventually fall in line behind the nominee.
Got that? Hope so, because that was the straight-forward part. The 126 delegates up for grabs on March 4 are divided among the 31 state senate districts. Each candidate will win delegates proportional to his or her percentage of the vote in each senate district. For instance, if Obama wins 50 percent of the vote in Austin (SD 14), which has eight delegates, then he will be awarded four delegates. The Texas Democratic Party has a breakdown of the delegate process here.
With the delegates split up, a big question becomes how will the candidates do in areas that are delegate-rich? You would expect Clinton to do well in the Rio Grande Valley — she has strong ties in the Valley from past campaigns, and Latino voters, to this point anyway, have backed Clinton overwhelmingly. Obama leads the polls in Austin where he has drawn huge crowds at two rallies this year, and, if past trends continue, could perform well with African-American voters in Houston and Dallas.
The number of delegates in each senate district is based roughly on the number of Democratic voters. There are lots of ways to figure out how many Democrats live in an area. (In Midland, you could probably count them on one hand. As Molly Ivins once wrote, “A board member of the ACLU of Texas was asked recently if there had been any trouble with gay bashing in Midland. “Oh, hell, honey,” she drawled, “there’s not a gay in Midland who will come out of the closet for fear people will think they’re Democrats.”) The Texas Democratic Party, in its infinite wisdom, came up with its own mathematical formula for apportioning delegates based on returns from the 2004 and 2006 elections.
Get your No. 2 pencils ready, here’s how it goes: You take the number of votes in a particular senate district for John Kerry in 2004 and divide that by the number of votes for Kerry statewide. You then take the number of votes in a district for Chris Bell in the 2006 governor’s race and divide that by the number of Bell votes statewide. Add those two calculations together and multiply it by one-half. The result of all that — besides a convulsion-inducing high school algebra flashback — is your “Y” figure. You then multiply your Y by 126 (total number of delegates) and that will tell you the number of delegates in a district.
This formula turns out to be too exact for its own good. You’ll probably end up with a delegate total for a district of, say, 7.4. And since it’s very difficult to have four-tenths of a delegate (without getting messy, anyway), you have to round up or down.
You could run through that calculation for all 31 senate districts. Us? We just called the party and asked for the numbers.
The delegates are concentrated in the major cities. Austin has the highest delegate count with eight, followed by Sen. Rodney Ellis’ district in Houston (seven), Royce West’s district in Dallas (six), and Jeff Wentworth’s district in San Antonio (six). The three senate districts in the Rio Grande Valley total just 11 delegates. The Houston area will award 30.
By splitting delegates this way, the Texas primary may have more impact this time around, but like California, may not deliver a knock out blow for either candidate.
February 5th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
The state convention is not bound by the national or state rules, nor by the “delegate selection plan”. The state parties are sovereign. Thus, three have told the DNC to shove it, and CLINTON is backing them now, having earlier tried to keep them from moving up primary dates.
There will be huge floor fights over seating at least three delegations in Denver, if the convention is still contested by August.
There should be huge fights in June at the State Democratic Convention. The Texas Democratic Party is run by its sole creditor, Matt ANGLE on behalf of Fred BARON on behalf of Martin FROST. They were all for John EDWARDS and tried to lock-up Texas early by collaborating with the GOP.
That failed, so now they are trying to lock-down the convention and deliver Texas for Hillary CLINTON.
That is bad news for Rick NORIEGA, Susan CRISS, and other statewide Democrats who need a united party to win.
But, the self-perpetuating DNC delegation and Texas State Democratic Executive Committee would rather lose the elections — as they have consistently done for over a decade — than lose control of a dysfunctional and demoralized party that would rather collaborate with the GOP than compete.
The Texas and Ohio primaries will likely be “inconclusive”, as Mark PENN spins the non-inevitability of Hillary CLINTONG.
But, the Texas state convention could be decisive both in overturning the state party establishment and, for instance, delivering an “uncommitted” delegaton to Denver that would have huge clout, not just prepaid food and lodging for a handful of sycophants and plants patronized by the Texas Trust and the AFL-CIO.
February 7th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Wrong. At every stage of the delegation selection process the allocation is based on the preferences of the people who show up for the caucus or convention, not the votes in the primary. Check the rules. Texas Democrats have a primary selection for local races but a pure caucus system for the presidential race. If you think you supported your candidate by voting for him or her you didn’t. You have to show up starting with the caucuses. The votes for the presidential nominees is a straw poll which distracts the media while the Democrats who caucus decide.
February 7th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
We don’t need Ohio or Texas to get to the White House. The Hillary campaign has run a hard race to the White House and we don’t intend to let Ohio or Texas stand in our way reguardless of their vote. We have already won the big states and we intend to invoke hole heartedly the votes of Florida. We tried to win the supporters of John Edwards. Unfortunately we did not win the supporters of John Edwards, but as you can see we didn’t need them to win the big states and we will not need them in the future to win the White House. The Clinton campaign started this race as winners, favored to be in the white house because we are not trying to change the face of america nor it’s foundation our pass leaders worked so hard to establish. We know what our opponent is trying to do and we can not let this happen. America is not broken, just our leadership. Everyone in america has been treated fair for over two hundred years and if they are unhappy with their current status or the economy then I’m sure they can find pleasure in being in america. When Senator Clinton is elected president she will address all issues of concern.
February 7th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
Sorry, my big mistake. The Senate District allocation at the Texas Democratic Convention is based on the primary vote. I missed it going through the rules and the multiple times there are allocations by preferences of the people attending.
February 7th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
The Hillary campaign would like to admit that. Yes we did break the rules, we went against our own party and the DNC. The american people must realize that this is a race and even though we are not worried about winning we must at least look like we are wining. Hillary supporters Please do not worry. In keeping with the american history that has long been set by our previous leaders. Whether getting a better possition on the job, recieving better pay, or flying to the moon our history in the U.S. has not allow a black man to precede a white women. That is why it doesn’t matter what we do or how the game is played, we will still win. The super delegates will go to our campaigne and Senator Hillary Clinton will be the next President. Fortunately for the Clinton campaign the vote of the people does not count. In the end the super delegates is all that matters. Everyone knows this, that is why President Clinton said it is okay to have Mr. Obama as president, but not yet, not before Hillary. That has been our history and we are not going to change the face of america until after we change the gender of the same. GO HILLARY!!!
February 8th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Wait a second, Clinoton supporter, who sounds as though he/she is playing devil’s advocate, on February 7th, 6:08 p.m. claimed that white women always precede black men. I guess the right to vote just isn’t very important, black men got that first.
February 8th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
It appears I am not the only Republican in TX that is planning to play the spoiler in the TX primary. There is growing support among Republicans to vote for Hillary on March 4th. The belief is that she is not as electable in November as Sen. Obama. The more Republicans that vote for her, the less likely Obama will get the delegates and have an opportunity to be elected.
February 9th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
It seem that we have worked so long and hard to matter in this country just to be set back another two hundred years by the Hispanic vote. Even Though we stand with them and march with them because we know what it is to be left behind. They had a chance to stand and make history but chose to block the greatest progress the U.S. has ever been on the verg of making. History will allways blame the Hispanic vote for stalling America. We still love you but we hurt because of you. Will it be your fault when the supper delegates are not given to Obama? Maybe not but you sure made it easier for that to happen. That’s one small step for a man; one giant leap backwards for mankind. My soul cries out in agony. I hope you will reverse this action in the votes to come.
February 9th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
According to the demographics, I should be voting for Hillary Clinton: I’m a white, 60-year-old, highly educated woman from the Northeast. But I’m voting for Obama. I’ve waited all my life for a viable woman candidate for the presidency, but this is not the right woman. I want a woman of the highest ability and virtue, who would serve as a glorious role model to all young women. Hillary Clinton is not that woman.
She rode into power with her husband, and together they’ve acquired a long and seriously flawed history of self-serving and secretive financial and political dealings. The most cursory research will prove that true. She started out her political life supporting the racist Barry Goldwater. She is as comfortable with deception and trickery as George Bush. When I hear woman saying, “Oh, but that’s how you get things done in Washington,” I literally cringe.
I am passionately supporting Barack Obama. He can beat the Republicans; she cannot. Obama has attracted Independents and even Republicans to his camp, and in a general election they would vote for him, but not for Clinton. Clinton voted for the war, and has never apologized for it. Obama has spoken out against it from the beginning. Obama brings us hope–and not just that. Take a serious look at his ideas and experience.
Please, I beg of you, Sisters young and old: wait for the right woman. Then we can be proud.
Diane Wald
February 10th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Solis Doyle, is dispencable, she has served her purpose to help us win the latino vote in the big states. We no longer need her or the latino vote to capture the white house. The women vote will now carry the Hillary campaign the rest of the way. Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton replaced campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle with longtime aide Maggie Williams on Sunday. Ms. Clinton believes Maggie Williams is a better choice to target the women vote. Clinton said in a statement. “I am lucky to have Maggie on board and I know she will lead our campaign with great skill towards the nomination.”
February 12th, 2008 at 11:28 am
The Clinton campaign didn’t have a healthcare plan before it felled and they don’t have one now. Well to be honest, if everyone is a goverment employee, then the Clinton healthcare plan will work for everyone. Unfortunately some are self employed, independent contractors or work for private employors or small business. Under the Clinton healthcare plan these people would be penalized if they don’t pay for their healthcare. This means that most of your family members and friends will have their paychecks garnished. We all know that it doesn’t stop there if it is a goverment enforcement. There will be fines and then misdemeanors which is a criminal offense defined as less serious than a felony. Why did Ms. Clinton decide on this approach? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure this out. Big business, big Corporation call it what you will, they want their money back and in order for Ms. Clinton to get their support in her race to presidency she is giving victory to one side (the healthcare providers) by promising to them that she will have the poeople wages garnished if they continue to give healthcare. Thus allowing her to shout the words “UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE” This is a shady tactic and makes fools out of every american that falls for this trick. The Obama healthcare plan is for the people. Poor people, middle class and rich people can rest assured that there is no tricks or penalties in the Obama healthcare plan. VOTE OBAMA!!
February 12th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Texas come on support Hillary!! She is great! I support 100%. I am hoping Texas will do the right thing and get Hillary to the White House.
I really do like Hillary. I am a supporter of hers. I like her platform on the issues. I may not agree with every choice she has made but then again I am not happy about some of the choices I have made either. I am not looking back at the past I am looking at the future. I am sure Obama is a very nice man but I am not looking for nice. I am looking for someone that can do a job. His speeches are good, but they don’t inspire me. I have serious doubts about his plans for the present and future.
I am one of the middle-class people. My husband is in the Navy serving on submarines. We talked long and hard about this and did a ton of research on both people. We are choosing to support Hillary.
The people that support Obama, it is your choice. I happen not to agree. That does not make stupid or dumb or racist or a horrible person.
If you take the media coverage out of this and the polls and just looked at each person, their records, their plans etc. People might see things differently.
February 12th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
[…] Democracy Catches Harris County, Texas Democratic Chair Birnberg By Surprise In the Texas Primary, to be held March 4, there is a crazy system of awarding the Democratic delegates. […]
February 16th, 2008 at 2:36 am
Brothers , Sisters , please vote for Barrack Obama!! Obama !Obama !
“Yes We can , We can be richer and who give a Sh.. about the poors ”
Obama is our modern Robin Hood, he robbed the poors and gave to the riches . My vote for him.
“Barack Obama angered fellow Democrats in the Illinois Senate when he voted to strip millions of dollars from a child welfare office on Chicago’s West Side. But Obama had a ready explanation: He goofed.”
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-obamavotes24jan24,1,4287705.story
I hope he doesn’t goof on red button of the ” Nuclear codes” once he became president .
February 16th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
I would like Obama to win but I fear for his life - Obama is like JFK representing change and will go against the “ESTABLISHMENT.” Unfortunately JFK was assasinated and Obama’s fate may end the same way. Who was the last significant person who wanted change and was assasinated? Oh yeah… MLK. The notion that Johnson was the author of civil rights is such a ridiculous joke. And for Hillary to say that Johnson was the author of the whole civic right era is one of such lies that she believes to be true. Hillary R. Clinton represents the “ESTABLISHMENT” and she will win the democratic nomination by superdelegates, not by the populous vote and probably win the presidency. Then it will be back to the same old business. Yes, the electoral vote is such a joke. But no matter. I am here to make a good living and step on anyone in my way. I will continue to follow the example of our leaders, currently Bush and soon to be Hillary Clinton. The quote and idea of “do not ask what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country” died the day JFK was killed. What a sad time, especially when perhaps change is in the horizon and here comes Hillary Clinton speaking out “talk is cheap”. Congratulate Hillary Clinton on your presidency. Hopefully, you might change into the kind of leader that the people and this country needs. BUT the educated people of this country who can see beyond your rhetoric already knows that you [Hillary] are to maintain the status quo. Luckily there are more uneducated, blue collar workers out there that do believe in your double talk and will propel you to the presidency. Again, congratulations.
February 16th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
I would like to know more about this slum land-lord from Chicago the OBAMA has close ties with…Barack and Michelle Obama live in a beautiful home that was purchased from this slum land-lord at a dirt cheap price…Hillary brought this to light in one of the debates and “The Great Orater” dodged the bullet and he is very good at this…Don’t you people see that when the media and such money is backing any candidate, that candidate has a lot of favors out…bad news…Barack Obama is a crook and if he gets president the low classes blacks of America will rise and it will not be safe to walk the streets…
February 16th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
updated 9:30 a.m. PT, Fri., Feb. 16, 2008
WASHINGTON - Pope Benedict XVI will visit the White House on April 16 during his first visit to the United States as pontiff.
White House spokesman Scott Stonzel said Senator Barack Obama, D-Ill and the pope would continue discussions they began during Obama’s trip to the Vatican in June 2006 on the importance of faith and reason in reaching shared goals.
Stonzel said the goals include advancing peace throughout the Middle East and other troubled regions, promoting interfaith understanding and strengthening human rights and freedom. The pope was also expected to address the United Nations, visit Victory Monument one of 9 Chicago Landmarks and celebrate Mass in Chicago Ill. and Washington during his April 21-25 trip.
February 25th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
THIS IS REALLY SAD. THIS IS RAPE..THIS IS A CHILD…I CAN NO LONGER SUPPORT HILLARY CLINTON AFTER KNOWING THIS….In 1975, a 27-year-old Hillary Rodham, acting as a court-appointed attorney, attacked the credibility of a 12-year-old girl in mounting an aggressive defense for an indigent client accused of rape in Arkansas - secured a lenient plea deal for Taylor after a New York-based forensics expert she hired “cast doubt on the evidentiary value of semen and blood samples collected by the sheriff’s office.”
READ THE LINK OR COPY AND PASTE FOR ACTUAL NEWS
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/hillary-versus-the-allegedly-raped-child