The Texas Observer

So maybe step No. 2 in the Texas Democratic prima-caucus won’t be so combative after all.

The leaders of the Hillary Clinton campaign in Texas held a conference call with reporters this afternoon to discuss what they expect from this Saturday’s county/senate district conventions. They struck a remarkably positive and conciliatory tone.

It was just last week that the Clinton campaign asked party officials to postpone the county conventions — the second in the three-tiered caucus process that will award 67 delegates — due to alleged fraud and confusion. Party Chair Boyd Richie said no.

“If I were dictator for the day, we would postpone the conventions for a week,” said Garry Mauro, who’s heading Clinton’s team in Texas. “I am not dictator. The chairman of the party made the decision that the current process could deal with all the confusion. We are dealing with the confusion very well.”

So everything is hunky dory? Not so much. In recent days, Hillary’s campaign rattled off emails calling all lawyers across the nation to converge on Texas and volunteer their time to scrutinize the county conventions.

But, Mauro said the Clinton campaign will not contest the convention process in any broad way, and won’t challenge the seating of any delegates at the county conventions. Individual Clinton supporters may file isolated challenges with each convention’s credentials committee. But, Mauro said, “We won’t be raising any [challenges]. There is no systematic approach that we are taking to challenge anybody on any level.”

He also said the he was comfortable with the party’s actions and that it was unlikely the Clinton campaign would file a lawsuit against the process. The biggest headache will be handling the crowd. “It’s organized chaos. The biggest problem will be somebody will show up at a meeting place and the electricity isn’t turned on. Somebody will show up at another place and the doors won’t be unlocked. This is a huge undertaking on a massive scale using all volunteers. So I think the only problems you’re going to have is the scale of the number of people participating.”

The campaign estimates it has about 45,000 delegates (and 30,000 alternates) at the 250 conventions to be held Saturday. The Barack Obama campaign has at least that number, and perhaps more. Despite news accounts that Obama won the caucus, the process isn’t finished, Mauro pointed out. Who wins the most delegates out of the caucus half of the Texas two-step will largely depend on which campaign ushers the most supporters to the county conventions on Saturday.

Said Mauro, “By Saturday, we should have an 85-90 percent certainty of how the delegates split out.”

(Update, Update II, below)

In the next hour, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson plans to publicly endorse Barack Obama, according to CNN. As of this post, the endorsement has not made it to the governor’s campaign Web site yet.

Richardson made the announcement in an e-mail to supporters, which begins, “after careful and thoughtful deliberation.”

Indeed!

Richardson could have made a difference for Obama in Texas, particularly with Latinos, had he chosen to endorse before the March 4 primacaucus. Despite flirtations with an endorsement, including a widely anticipated appearance on Face the Nation right before the vote, in the end he opted to wait. As Mark Penn of the Clinton campaign said this morning in a conference call, “[t]he time when he could have been most effective has long since passed.”

CNN is reporting that where the Richardson endorsement might have the most impact now is in persuading superdelegates to support Obama over Clinton. Hillary Clinton still has the lead in superdelegates, according to Politico.com, but the majority remain uncommitted.

Below is an except from Richardson’s e-mail:

Earlier this week, Senator Barack Obama gave an historic speech that addressed the issue of race with the eloquence, sincerity, and optimism we have come to expect of him. He inspired us by reminding us of the awesome potential residing in our own responsibility. He asked us to rise above our racially divided past, and to seize the opportunity to carry forward the work of many patriots of all races, who struggled and died to bring us together.

As a Hispanic, I was particularly touched by his words. I have been troubled by the demonization of immigrants–specifically Hispanics–by too many in this country. Hate crimes against Hispanics are rising as a direct result and now, in tough economic times, people look for scapegoats and I fear that people will continue to exploit our racial differences–and place blame on others not like them . We all know the real culprit — the disastrous economic policies of the Bush Administration!

Senator Obama has started a discussion in this country long overdue and rejects the politics of pitting race against race. He understands clearly that only by bringing people together, only by bridging our differences can we all succeed together as Americans.

His words are those of a courageous, thoughtful and inspiring leader, who understands that a house divided against itself cannot stand. And, after nearly eight years of George W. Bush, we desperately need such a leader.

To reverse the disastrous policies of the last seven years, rebuild our economy, address the housing and mortgage crisis, bring our troops home from Iraq and restore America’s international standing, we need a President who can bring us together as a nation so we can confront our urgent challenges at home and abroad.

During the past year, I got to know Senator Obama as we campaigned against each other for the Presidency, and I felt a kinship with him because we both grew up between words, in a sense, living both abroad and here in America. In part because of these experiences, Barack and I share a deep sense of our nation’s special responsibilities in the world.

Update:

MSNBC has the full video of the endorsement announcement at a rally in Oregon.

Update, II:

From Bill Burton, Obama Campaign press secretary, on Penn’s comment that Richardson’s value as an endorsement had passed.

“Long since? Actually, it must have passed awfully fast.

Bill and Hillary both called Richardson to ask for his endorsement March 18 — eight days ago, according to a source familiar with the conversations.”

Hmmm. Wonder who that source could be? Governor?

We’re thumbing through the exit polling today to break down Hillary Clinton’s important win in the Texas primary. Of course, it’s a rare treat to even have an exit poll — usually no one cares enough about presidential politics in Texas to conduct one. You can read the raw numbers here, courtesy of MSNBC.

Two on-going trends continued in Texas. The generation gap that has opened between Obama and Clinton supporters was as wide as ever. (Obama dominated the 35 and under set; Clinton was equally dominant with voters over 50.)

Also, Clinton continued to attract overwhelming support from Latinos. Here, we pause to offer well-deserved back-patting for Democratic consultant Leland Beatty, who told us weeks ago he expected Latinos to comprise 31 percent of the Democratic primary electorate. (Other prognosticators threw out wild numbers like 40 and 50 percent.) The actual Latino share, according to the exit poll, was 32 percent.

Clinton won the Latino vote 66 percent to 32. We wrote in our election preview that Obama would have to keep Clinton’s share of Latinos below 60 percent to have a chance. He didn’t, and she won, thanks to her huge advantages in San Antonio and throughout South Texas.

A few other interesting tidbits about Clinton’s coalition: The biggest demographic of voters was white folks age 45-59, who comprised 18 percent of the electorate. Clinton won them by 20 points. She won white voters overall by 55-44.

Women comprised 57 percent of voters and Obama lost this group 54-45.

Finally, the exit poll data offers one other interesting possibility: Have conservative Republicans begun sand-bagging for Hillary?

As I drove to Fort Worth yesterday to cover the election, I caught some of right-wing radio host Laura Ingraham’s show. She was encouraging Republicans to “take one for the team,” by crossing over to vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary. Ingraham believes Clinton will be the weaker general election candidate by uniting conservatives behind John McCain. Ingraham was fielding calls from die-hard Republicans, some who were state GOP committee members, in Ohio and Texas who said they had followed Ingraham’s advice and voted for Hillary. Rush Limbaugh has been pulling the same act.

This is anecdotal, of course, and it’s hard to know how wide-spread it is. But with the GOP primary now decided, Republicans are free to meddle.

And it’s worth noting that in both Ohio and Texas, Republicans and independents comprised a higher percentage of the Democratic primary than in previous states. Based on past results, you would think that favors Obama, who has done well in “open” Democratic primaries where Republicans can cross-over on election day.

For instance, in California on February 5, Obama won among independents 58-32 percent, even though Clinton won the state. In Virginia, he won GOPers by 72-23 and independents by 69-30. And in Missouri, which Obama narrowly won, he took Republicans by 75-21 and independents 67-30.

But in Texas and Ohio — all of a sudden — that trend was halted. In Ohio, Clinton and Obama split the Republican and independent votes.

In Texas, non-Democrats made up 34 percent of the Democratic primary vote. And Obama barely won among Republicans (53-46) and independents divided their votes evenly.

It’s hard to know if the sand-baggers are responsible for this turn-around. Whatever the explanation, it’s a stinging reversal for Obama.

The Daggett Elementary School in South Fort Worth hosts voters from six precincts. Democrats from all over the Fairmont neighborhood streamed in tonight to caucus for president. The turnout was stunning. Many were attending their first presidential caucus in the Texas Democratic Party’s odd primary-caucus hybrid.

“I never even knew there was a caucus,” said Mike Cagle, a longtime Democratic voter, as he waited for his caucus to begin in the school’s cafeteria.

Precinct 1096 gathered in the gym. Usually 10 or 15 people turn out for the caucus, said state Rep. Lon Burnam, who lives in the precinct. Tonight, more than 120 people signed in. (If you’re wondering, the final tally was 57 percent for Obama and 43 percent for Clinton, which meant Obama received one extra delegate to the county convention — each precinct will send roughly a half a delegate to the national convention. In Cagle’s caucus down the hall in the cafeteria, Clinton had a slight edge.)

The caucuses all seemed civil. Everywhere you looked tonight, the Democratic Party seemed to be reconstituting itself. In a tiny class room at the end of the hall, about 20 people — all Blacks and Latinos — waited in silence for their caucus to begin. None of them had ever caucused before. This was precinct 4084. There hadn’t been a caucus in 4084 for years because no one had ever bothered to show up. There was no precinct chair.

Finally, Mike Utt, an election poll worker, bopped in to explain the process to the confused folks in 4084. They soon had signed in for their candidates — 18 for Hillary and 2 for Obama. Here was a list of voters, with all their contact information, wanting to get involved in the process.

“Does anyone want to be precinct chair?” Utt asked. “They pay you for it.”

Juanita Robles raised her hand. She’s lived in the neighborhood all her life and voted in many elections, but never attended a caucus before. It was what she called a “historic” election that brought her to Daggett Elementary. By the end of the night, she was the Democratic Party’s newest precinct chair. Seated at a small green table in an elementary classroom, Robles filled out the necessary party paperwork and prepared to call in the caucus results. In a few weeks, she said, she will attend the county convention.The results of tonight’s caucus and primary are unclear. But given the turnout and excitement generated by Obama and Clinton, there is one clear winner — the Democratic Party in Texas.

The word in Tarrant County this afternoon is that turnout for the critical Texas Democratic primary has been steady but not overwhelming.

Both campaigns have identified the Dallas-Fort Worth area as an important battleground. The turnout at most polling locations is heavy — one voter in south Fort Worth reported seeing lines at his polling location for the first time ever — but nothing the precincts can’t handle. No lines around the block, at least not yet. Rumor has it that at least in one polling place in neighboring Denton County they ran out of ballots.

Art Brender, the Tarrant Co. Democratic Party chair, said few problems or violations have been reported — only minor infractions. (One example: One voter took the campaigns’ suggestion that you could “vote twice,” a reference to the primary and caucus combo, a little too literally and actually voted twice in the primary.)

Tarrant County experienced a record turnout in early voting — more than 87,000 people in the Democratic primary. Brender said another 80,000 people may vote today. At a polling location in South Fort Worth, workers were bracing for an after-work rush that may last through the caucus, which is supposed to begin at 7:15 p.m.

The state Democratic Party sent out a statement this afternoon about unconfirmed reports of campaign workers filling out fraudulent sign-in sheets in the Metroplex ahead of tonight’s caucus. This is not allowed, the party chided. The campaigns for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton then traded accusations over whose volunteers were actually doing this. The Obama campaign provided specifics. When queried for details, the Clinton campaign failed to respond.

With all our chasing after the campaigns yesterday, we didn’t have time to look at the early vote. Fortunately, the ever-perceptive Leland Beatty did most of the heavy lifting for us. According to the Associated Press, about 2 million people voted early. That’s just a fraction of the estimated 12 million registered voters in the state, but it’s a historic number nonetheless.

Beatty’s analysis points to a few startling and suggestive facts from the early vote numbers:

A huge percentage of the vote is from voters who have not previously voted in a Democratic primary.

In Harris County these newbies make up 66.8 percent of the early vote. In Travis County, they constitute 58.5 percent of the vote. In Dallas County, they are 59.7 percent of the vote. Even in Hidalgo County, where the only game in town generally is the Democratic primary, 40.1 percent are new primary voters. As we’ve discussed before, if Democrats can identify what motivates these folks and dedicate resources to getting them out again in November, they could have a huge impact on Texas politics going forward.

There are a lot of past Republican primary voters casting ballots in the Democratic primary.

Republicans are being outvoted in the primary 3-to-1. If that wasn’t bad enough, some of the surging Democratic vote is coming from former Republicans. The SwitcherShare, as Beatty calls it, is 8.5 percent of the vote in Dallas County, 7.8 percent in Houston, and 11 percent in Travis County. One has to think that this trend favors Barack Obama, who has attracted support from Republicans and Independents in the past.

Despite record youth turnout, the bulk of the vote comes from folks over 40.

In Harris County, 67.5 percent of the vote is from those over 40, and approximately 40 percent of that vote is women over 40. The trend is similar in the other big counties. In Hidalgo, 64.7 percent of the early vote is the older demographic and 37.1 percent is women over 40. In Travis County, with its huge university population, 57.5 percent of the vote is from folks over 40, with 30.8 percent coming from women over 40. In Dallas, it’s a whopping 69.8 percent of the early vote for the older folks, with 39.1 percent of that women. The early turnout of women over 40 is huge for Hillary Clinton.

Some say the early vote favors Obama but other polling indicates Clinton is ahead. We should know soon enough.

Early reports from folks here in Austin are that traffic at the polls has been light. It’s possible this early-vote thing actually works!

Stay tuned. Throughout the day and evening we will have blog posts from around the state, including reports from the caucuses in key cities.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama found their way to the same city tonight for rival rallies ahead of Tuesday’s critical Texas primary. Obama went first — ramping up a crowd of roughly four thousand at a packed Verizon Wireless Amphitheater outside San Antonio.

An hour later, Clinton took her turn across town, addressing a much smaller — though no less enthusiastic — crowd at Hemisfair Park downtown. San Antonio, along with Dallas-Fort Worth, has become one of the important battlegrounds in the state.

The campaigns dueled across town just as they were snapping at each other over Clinton’s latest ad, and as new polls today indicated the races in Texas and Ohio are tight.

Obama’s rally showed the impressive organization of his campaign — and a hint of its controlling nature.

No sooner had I arrived at the Verizon Amphitheater, then a string of five Obama volunteers — from as far away as D.C. and Hawaii — personally escorted me to the press area. When I remarked on the stunning service, a staffer told me that’s what happens when so many volunteers flock to a campaign.

Waiting for Obama to arrive, I ventured out of the press area to interview supporters. Apparently, that was a no-no. When I sat down next to a woman wearing an Obama shirt, a volunteer tapped me on the shoulder and told me the campaign forbids reporters from interviewing anyone before speeches.

The campaign wants reporters doing interviews after the speech, when everyone is fired up and ready to go. It was a bizarre moment: I’ve never been forbidden to interview campaign supporters at a political rally. (Eventually, I managed to sneak away from the Obama police and talked to some folks.)

Obama took the stage at 8 p.m. on the button — a remarkable on-time arrival. His 45-minute speech was stump material that you’ve probably heard from him before. Yet, coming from Obama, it sounded like he was saying it all for the first time. It’s an impressive trait, that he can repeat the same lines so many times without draining the words of their power and energy.

“I don’t just want to end the war. I want to end the mindset that got us into war,” he said, prowling the stage with a cordless mic, in front of the word “Hope” erected in red, white and blue balloons. “End the politics of fear. And using 9-11 to scare up votes.”

Here, Obama deviated from his stump speech to wade into the latest controversy on the campaign.

“Since I’m talking about the politics of fear, I want to take a moment to respond to the ad Sen. Clinton put up today.” The crowd booed lustily. “We’ve seen this before. It won’t work. Because the question isn’t who’s picking up the phone. The question is what kind of judgment will the person picking up the phone have. Sen. Clinton may not be aware but we already had a red phone moment.”

He meant the decision to invade Iraq. “And Sen. Clinton gave the wrong answer. And John McCain gave the wrong answer. George Bush gave the wrong answer….All three of them, they got a particular way of doing things.” He then pointed out that he had opposed the Iraq war from the start. “That’s the kind of judgment I’ll have when the phone rings at 3 in the morning…..You won’t see me trying to scare up votes using the threat of terrorism. I’ll make sure we rally the country together against our common enemies.”

After Obama finished, I dashed to the car, nudged my way through the crowded parking lot, and sped 20 miles down Interstate 35 to hear Clinton. (In my haste, I had forgotten to remove my Obama press badge, which elicited a sneering comment from a Clinton supporter.)

Her crowd was much smaller. She spoke on a stage in front of the park; the crowd filled the street intersection. Perhaps a thousand people.

“When the phone rings in the White House at 3 a.m., there’s no time for speeches, there’s no time for on-the-job training,” Clinton said. She will be ready on day one, she said.

But Clinton couldn’t help but slip in some of that Obama, change-the-world kind of rhetoric. She noted that Dolores Huerta, legendary Farm Workers activist, was there to support her. “Dolores is with me because she knows where I’ve been. People who look at where we’ve come from know we have work to do, but there’s no reason we can’t keep marching….Starting on Tuesday, we will take our country back and we will change the world.”

Voters in San Antonio and all over Texas will be hearing a lot more from these two before Tuesday. As Bill Shute of San Antonio put it, sitting in the back of the amphitheater as the crowd filed in before Obama’s speech, “It feels like I live in Iowa or New Hampshire, the way people have been coming down here and catering to us.”