The Texas Observer

The Obama campaign held a conference call this morning to echo what even most pundits said last night — that their candidate has all but sealed up the nomination.

Obama Strategist David Plouffe said Obama netted 13 delegates last night. He gained 17 in his sweep of North Carolina and limited Hillary Clinton to a win of four delegates in Indiana. That more than erases Clinton’s haul from Pennsylvania. Plouffe said Obama now leads Clinton by 172 pledged delegates (that’s the non-superdelegate kind) — the biggest advantage of the campaign. “A high water mark,” he termed it. Obama is within 172 delegates of clinching the nomination (ahem, superdelegates, please pick up the white courtesy phone).

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, one of five prominent elected Democrats who joined Plouffe on the call, described Obama’s performance last night a “giant and decisive step” toward the nomination.

One reporter asked if the campaign expected Obama to be “Swift Boated” in the fall. This seems to be a recurring fear among Democrats — that Obama will wilt under GOP attacks. Plouffe responded that Obama’s better-than-expected performance last night following a month of controversy shows that “Sen. Obama has a toughness and an ability to deal with adversity that will serve him well in the general election.”

Kerry, Mr. Swift Boat himself, chimed in with an important and oft-forgotten fact of 2004: that the Kerry campaign didn’t have the resources in August of 2004 to respond to the Swift Boat attacks. Because the Democratic National Convention was so early and the GOP’s so late, the Kerry campaign faced five weeks in which it had to conserve general election funds for October. This time, not only will Obama — like “all Democrats everywhere” — learn from Kerry’s mistakes and respond quickly, but Obama also won’t have the financial constraints of his predecessor.

Earlier this morning, the Clinton campaign held its own conference call in which they disclosed that Clinton had lent her campaign $6.4 million. Nonetheless, Howard Wolfson, her campaign spokesman said there had been zero discussion about whether to drop out. Asked if Clinton should end her campaign, the elected officials on the Obama call demurred. Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri said, “There is a sincere respect for Hillary Clinton in this campaign… This is her decision.”

McCaskill then added, “We’re confident that she is going to do the right thing for the Democratic Party.”

The Obama campaign declared victory in the senatorial conventions held yesterday. This just in, the Clinton campaign has declared… something else. See below.

And of course, the counties are still counting.

Statement by Texas Campaign Chairman Garry Mauro

Austin, TX – Following the Democratic Party’s county conventions in Texas this weekend, Clinton Campaign Texas Chairman Garry Mauro issued the following statement.

“Our delegates came out to their county conventions in full force over the weekend, and as a result, we gained at least two delegates to the national convention, with the possibility of picking up two more. Barack Obama did not make threshold in at least 20 counties, and we out-performed in many areas throughout rural Texas, where Hillary Clinton’s support is strong.

“We continue to be grateful to the enthusiastic support Hillary continues to receive throughout the Lone Star state, and look forward to a strong showing at the Texas State Convention in June.”

This in from the Obama Campaign. It might be a bit premature. When we get something from the Clinton Campaign, we’ll post that as well.

Meanwhile, once again the national media is shaking its head at the bedlam produced by Texas Democrats…

Caucuses Guarantee Obama Win In Texas

AUSTIN - With more than 56% of the results tallied from today’s 284 Democratic district conventions across Texas, Senator Barack Obama currently is projected to earn a 38-29 pledged delegate win in the Texas caucuses, exactly as projected on the day after the March 4th precinct caucuses. The nine delegate margin in the caucuses means Obama will gain a net margin of five pledged delegates from Texas because Senator Clinton narrowly won the Texas primary by only four delegates, 65-61.

“Despite the Clinton campaign’s widespread attempts to prevent many Texans from participating in their district convention, the voters of Texas confirmed Senator Obama’s important delegate win in the Lone Star State,” said Obama spokesman Josh Earnest. “Today’s record-shattering turnout sends a clear message that the American people are ready for change in Washington and new leadership in the White House that will stand up for working families.”

The Obama campaign will release a more detailed tally of the results tomorrow.

Democracy Inaction at Senate District Six by Emily DePrang

Full results can be found at Burnt Orange Report

Over a thousand delegates and an unknown number of alternates converged today on the George R. Brown Convention Center in downtown Houston to wait for literally eight hours to begin voting. While an unexpectedly large number of delegates turned out, precinct chairs from several small precincts did not show up at all, and a quorum wasn’t declared until 1:15 p.m. That’s when officials in the Credentials committee started tabulating the registration paperwork to come up with a temporary delegate roll, which was needed before any voting could happen. Despite explicit instructions not to, several precincts decided on their delegates amongst themselves, turned in their ballots to their precinct captains, and went home.

By 5:00, the hall started to feel like the Breakfast Club, like the full spectrum of Democrats got sentenced to Saturday detention and hung out together for long enough that they learned they’re more alike than different.

The feeling lasted until someone actually took the podium and read the delegate count. “Of 1152 delegates, 513 went to Obama…” the speaker said to a deathly quiet room, because everyone knows that’s not enough. “And 637 to Clinton.” The Clinton camp exploded. The Obama camp was pissed. It’s 45 percent to 55 percent, with two delegates undecided.

Update, (see below)

Democratic delegates for Senate Districts 14 and 25 started arriving at the Travis County Exposition Center by 7:30 a.m.

By 9:00, a traffic jam extended miles away from the expo center. Those who didn’t want to wait in their cars, parked on the side of the road and walked the rest of the way.

When delegates arrived, long lines to get their credentials greeted them. The official schedule had optimistically set the Call to Order to begin at 10. A volunteer told the crowd trudging in: “The check-in has been extended indefinitely.” It was still going on by noon.

Nonetheless, the Travis County Democratic convention could end up being one of the smoother major urban area conventions in Texas. Much of the credit should go to the credentials committees. The committees began meeting Tuesday night and worked steadily through the rest of the week. They were divided almost evenly and yet exhibited little partisan rancor.

SD 14 had 8 Obama members and 7 Clinton members. They decided all of the dozen or so challenges they heard unanimously. “There was no sign of anyone putting their thumbs on the scale,” said committee member Deece Eckstein.

A few major problems became apparent almost immediately. The largest concerned the caucus sign-in sheets from March 4. The tri-part forms included a space for whether the caucus-goer was elected a delegate or an alternate. The idea was that after everybody signed in, the caucus goers would vote to determine the delegates and alternates. After that, the precinct chair would write a D or an A next to the appropriate names.

But those who signed in thought the space was a place to indicate a preference–that they wanted to be a delegate. Many people put Ds beside their names. Precinct chairs then failed to cross them out if they were not in fact delegates. The sheet along with supplemental sheets from the actual delegate selection elections were then sent to the county party to be inputed into the master list. Those entering the data didn’t want to disenfranchise anyone so they just identified everybody who had a D by their name as a delegate. That list was then put on the Internet. The result was that many more delegates than a precinct had a right to showed up at the convention.

These overages have created chaos across the state. Additionally, it appears that many folks had trouble with the complicated mathematical formula the Party provided to determine the ratios of delegates. Finally, poor data entry created confusion when names were mangled. Deece Eckstein, for example, wore a delegate badge that identified him as Delbert Einstein.

In Travis County, the committees patiently worked through the problems. In precincts with too many delegates, members were told that they had decide who would get to stay, if they didn’t the committee would pick the names out of a hat.

“People get all heated and they want their candidate but if you kind of force them to be fair — they’re fair,” said Reggie James, who is on the credentials committee for SD 25.

Kudos particularly to Travis County District Attorney David Escamilla, SD 14 committee co-chair, who approached each case with a preternatural calm, offering Solomon-like solutions.

While the sign-in and credential challenge process worked itself out, a number of politicians, candidates, and guests served up red-meat speeches to the crowd. Congressman Lloyd Doggett went first since his district covers three counties and he had other conventions to attend.

He applauded delegates for working toward a future after the “unmitigated disaster that has been the presidency of George W. Bush.” And working to bring to an end “the dictatorship of Tom Craddick “and “the public embarrassment of Rick Perry.”

Doggett, who has endorsed Barack Obama, talked about receiving angry e-mails from supporters of both Democratic presidential candidates, with each camp claiming that they’d rather vote Republican than support their primary opponent. “That kind of short-sighted perspective is a formula for failure,” he said. “We will get to the White House together or we will not get there at all.”

It was a refrain that most speakers echoed. Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, also an Obama supporter, reminded the crowd of an African proverb he likes to recite. “Two people in a burning house don’t have time to argue.

“We are all in the same house,” said Kirk. “And the president doesn’t even know the smoke detector has gone off.”

By around 3:00 the actual delegate selection began, two-and-a-half hours later than expected. By and large the crowd stayed in good humor and took the problems in stride.

When first confronted with the line to sign-in, state Rep. Mark Strama remarked, “We learned in Florida, better to be accurate than quick.”

It wasn’t quick but in Travis County at least, it might well be accurate.

Update:

Burnt Orange Report has the final tally for Travis County: 313 for Obama, 144 for Clinton

All over the state tomorrow, Democrats will gather for state senatorial district conventions. Here is an “unofficial” list from the state Democratic party of their locations.

This is the second stage in a three-tier process to determine the distribution of 67 delegates. Here’s a refresher on the process. On caucus night as many as a million Democrats participated in Texas. Here are unofficial results from the caucus by senatorial district.

Winnowing down a million to 67 is akin to shoving a donkey through a garden hose. The March 4 caucuses weren’t always pretty and tomorrow promises more potential for ugliness.

After asking and being refused a delay in the conventions, the Clinton campaign assured reporters that they would not be conducting systematic challenges to delegates. Not so much. Daily Kos reports that they are systematically challenging Obama delegates, particularly in Dallas. The Clinton campaign is saying they are just helping their partisans.

More than likely, rather than top-down shenanigans from the campaigns, we will witness more of the run-of-the-mill disorganization and individual bias that has marked this process so far. Our crack team of Observer reporters will be giving you the blow-by-blow from a number of locations tomorrow.

Here’s a taste to get you started:

Tarrant County

In Tarrant County, party officials are trying to work through numerous logistical entanglements before tomorrow’s county and senate district conventions. The biggest problem is that the Senate District 10 convention in Fort Worth has way too many delegates signed up to attend – as in 800 too many. The district is allocated roughly 3,700 delegates. But somehow on election night, the caucuses in Fort Worth named nearly 4,500 delegates. Many precincts just named too many delegates. That means 800 folks can’t get seated at tomorrow’s convention. The credentials committee has been meeting on Friday to figure out how to resolve the problem by tomorrow morning. The two main proposals are allowing the disputed precincts to re-caucus tomorrow morning. Or the credentials committee can simply cull through the delegate list to pick the folks who can get seated. Either way, it doesn’t sound like a fun Friday night for the volunteers on the credentials committee.

Bexar County

Angie Garcia, temporary chair of the Democratic Bexar County convention in Senate District 26, said that there will be a few challenges to delegates at her convention but she couldn’t name how many. “Mostly the challenges will be based on procedure – that something wasn’t done right during the caucus,” she says. “We are pretty clear on the delegates though. We are going to have the delegates for Hillary.”

Garcia said the credentials committee will meet tomorrow starting around 8:30 and will sort out any challenges that have already been presented or that come up during the sign in process. Garcia cited a precinct on the west side of San Antonio that turned in its delegate counts for Obama but not for Clinton. “The Clinton people were there but they met in a separate location and now nobody can find the Clinton list,” says Garcia. “ Obviously we will have to figure that out at the convention. We may have to have a mini caucus.”

Ian Straus, temporary chair of the convention in Senate District 25 in San Antonio says he expects at least 2,000 people to show up. “In previous conventions I chaired we had 50 people and in the last one 30 people,” he says. “We’ve never had anything like what we are expecting tomorrow.”

Straus says there will be some contested delegates and that the credentials committee has already started meeting on those delegates. “They won’t adjudicate until tomorrow, however,” he says.

Straus says his main fear is that people will lose their patience with the process which could take all day. “I don’t want people to think they can drive up at 1:45 p.m. then sign in and participate,” he says. “First of all there is nowhere to park. The building was built before there were cars. That’s why I am encouraging people to get here early,” Straus says.

On the positive side, he says the convention is better organized than in previous years. “We are going to have 10 times the people we are used to so we started early,” he says. “Now we really need to look ahead and try to keep some of these people who come to the convention involved in the Democratic process. We really need to take the state back from the Republicans,” says Straus. “For me it’s going to be a very exciting event.”

If you plan on going to any of the conventions check the Bexar County Democratic Web site for any last minute changes.

Harris County

The folks over at the Harris County Democratic Party have been working overtime the past few days. They don’t have a full grasp of the challenges to delegates so far. This is what they told us:

SD 4: No challenges but about 20 people were removed for non-qualification.

SD 7: Had fewer than 20 challenges.

SD 11: Had about 8.

SD 15: Had 40.

SD 17: Had fewer than 20.

Information is still missing on two important districts: SD 13 (Sen. Rodney Ellis’ delegate-rich district) and SD 6 (where Clinton got closest to Obama on election night in Harris County).

So maybe step No. 2 in the Texas Democratic prima-caucus won’t be so combative after all.

The leaders of the Hillary Clinton campaign in Texas held a conference call with reporters this afternoon to discuss what they expect from this Saturday’s county/senate district conventions. They struck a remarkably positive and conciliatory tone.

It was just last week that the Clinton campaign asked party officials to postpone the county conventions — the second in the three-tiered caucus process that will award 67 delegates — due to alleged fraud and confusion. Party Chair Boyd Richie said no.

“If I were dictator for the day, we would postpone the conventions for a week,” said Garry Mauro, who’s heading Clinton’s team in Texas. “I am not dictator. The chairman of the party made the decision that the current process could deal with all the confusion. We are dealing with the confusion very well.”

So everything is hunky dory? Not so much. In recent days, Hillary’s campaign rattled off emails calling all lawyers across the nation to converge on Texas and volunteer their time to scrutinize the county conventions.

But, Mauro said the Clinton campaign will not contest the convention process in any broad way, and won’t challenge the seating of any delegates at the county conventions. Individual Clinton supporters may file isolated challenges with each convention’s credentials committee. But, Mauro said, “We won’t be raising any [challenges]. There is no systematic approach that we are taking to challenge anybody on any level.”

He also said the he was comfortable with the party’s actions and that it was unlikely the Clinton campaign would file a lawsuit against the process. The biggest headache will be handling the crowd. “It’s organized chaos. The biggest problem will be somebody will show up at a meeting place and the electricity isn’t turned on. Somebody will show up at another place and the doors won’t be unlocked. This is a huge undertaking on a massive scale using all volunteers. So I think the only problems you’re going to have is the scale of the number of people participating.”

The campaign estimates it has about 45,000 delegates (and 30,000 alternates) at the 250 conventions to be held Saturday. The Barack Obama campaign has at least that number, and perhaps more. Despite news accounts that Obama won the caucus, the process isn’t finished, Mauro pointed out. Who wins the most delegates out of the caucus half of the Texas two-step will largely depend on which campaign ushers the most supporters to the county conventions on Saturday.

Said Mauro, “By Saturday, we should have an 85-90 percent certainty of how the delegates split out.”