Victory By the Numbers
August 26th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Two of the nation’s most respected pollsters — Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center and Stan Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research — tried to explain to visiting international leaders in Denver today just why Barack Obama appears to be neck-and-neck with John McCain, even though nearly 80 percent of Americans believe the Bush administration has put the country on the “wrong track.”
While the Democratic Party enjoys a “double digit advantage” in voters who identify themselves as Democrats (over self-identifying Republicans), Obama still splits the independent vote with McCain and has failed to marshall support in key subgroups of Democratic Party faithful, particularly older blue collar voters. Simply put, Obama is not doing as well in polling as his party, and his numbers are moving in the wrong direction.
Some interesting poll findings from their recent research: Kohut says Obama has received twice as much press as McCain in the last few months, but apparently, to his disadvantage. Some 48 percent of voters feel “Obama fatigue” in that they’ve heard too much about the candidate. Yet, nearly 60 percent report they know little about his economic or foreign policy perspectives. Kohut also says McCain beats Obama 54 to 27 on the question of who is ready to be president; he beats Obama 51 to 36 on the question of who would govern best in a crisis.
Greenberg says 54 percent of voters say they would be “comfortable” with a Democratic president, but only 48 percent said they would be “comfortable” with an Obama administration. Noting that only half of independent voters believe that McCain would continue the policies of George Bush, Greenberg said Obama “must change that perception….It’s up to the Obama campaign to make that case,” Greenberg said, by drawing sharp contrasts with McCain on the economy and Iraq.
Added Kohut: “His mission at this convention is to do a better job with his base, alleviate the concerns about his lack of experience and shine a light on McCain.”
Greenberg believes Obama can win with the message that he will clip the power of the Washington lobby and end partisan divide. He also noted there was much good news in the numbers for Obama — he’s leading by 6 points in the battleground states. Also, Obama leads by overwhelming majority with Hispanic voters, who are participating in record numbers because of the Republican-driven immigration debate. And with that, Greenberg ended the discussion “on a note of humility”: Given the huge increase in participation in the primaries, he said, “I’m not sure I know America this year.” The surge in voter turnout, he admitted, came as “a complete surprise.”
