Dem Folks Still Wounded
June 7th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
The theme of the two-day Democratic state convention — which wrapped late this afternoon in Austin — was supposed to be unity. Nearly all the elected officials and party leaders who addressed delegates in the main convention hall and in the many smaller caucus gatherings offered messages of togetherness.
And while there were hints of genuine unity, many delegates made clear that the divisions from such a passionate primary campaign won’t dissipate quickly.
Chelsea Clinton was one of many who urged delegates to coalesce around Barack Obama. She told the convention Friday night that her mother would “re-affirm her life-long commitment to electing Democrats.”
Later on Friday, state Reps. Rene Oliveira (a Clinton supporter) and Yvonne Davis (who backed Obama) took the stage together and clasped hands in a show of unity. The huge crowd — the largest at a Democratic state convention in years — rose and chanted “Yes, we can” in unison.
Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, the first governor to endorse Obama for president, told delegates they had to work together because “there’s never been an election with more at stake in my lifetime.”
Saturday’s program was interrupted so delegates could watch Clinton’s concession speech from Washington, broadcast on the convention hall’s giant screens. The delegates gave Clinton a long-distance standing ovation as she formally endorsed Obama. But the broadcast feed was lost after a few minutes — it just wouldn’t be a Democratic convention without some technological snafu.
A little while later, state Sen. Royce West of Dallas commanded Obama and Clinton delegates to rise and take each other’s hands in a “We Are the World” moment. (West’s appeal for unity was far more appetizing than state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, who went the too-much-information route: “Anyone who’s been in a relationship knows that eventually you stop fighting, and you get back together….As my husband, Pete, says, the makeup sex is really good.”)
Despite the many calls for unity — in interviews with delegates a different story emerged — animosity between the two sides lingers, and may remain for a while.
Some Obama supporters were still muttering about Clinton remaining in the race so long after her chances for victory had dwindled.
Meanwhile, many Clinton die-hards weren’t quite ready to embrace Obama — though most said they eventually would. One Clinton supporter was seen toting a sign that read, “Small-town, gun-owning religious Democrat bitter about Obama.”
Nearly every Clinton delegate we talked to said they wanted Hillary to be the vice presidential nominee — and that Obama can’t win without her. That sentiment could prolong the discord if Obama chooses someone else. We heard that at least one Clinton delegate who announced that she was switching to Obama was denounced as a “rogue” delegate.
“I’m disappointed. I don’t like [that Obama’s the nominee].” said Kevin Rice, a Clinton delegate from San Antonio. “I guess I have to vote for him because I’m a Democrat. I will politic for him. But it’s going to take some time. It’s almost like a mourning period. Our campaign died, and we’re in mourning. Once that mourning is over, then it’s back to work.”
June 9th, 2008 at 5:42 am
And so it ends… NOT
Over 500 days (almost exactly half the entire duration of John F. Kennedy’s Presidency), over two dozen televised “debates”, nearly 40 million voters and contributors, and over $500 million dollars spent by the candidates pursuing the Democratic Party’s nomination,
AND IT’S STILL “NOT OVER” ? NOT BY A LONGSHOT.
At least, when the question is whether “Clintonism” (the Clintonian variation of the Nixon method for getting elected) is well and truly ended.
The political machinations of the next 10 weeks are likely to brutal and ugly, but also largely hidden from plain view, as Hillary Rodham Clinton seeks to salvage what remains of her quest for power with an effort to be named Barack Obama’s choice for Vice-President.
Even before the polls closed on the final day of primary voting, Hillary’s VP campaign had begun. (perhaps as long ago as 21Feb in the Austin TX debate)
And who will “decide” the question? The 4000+ delegates to the Democratic Party National Convention in Denver in the last week of August 2008. And how will they decide? The questions of “electability”, “compatibility”, “loyalty”, “gratitude”, “sympathy”, and “grievance” will all play their parts, but the combination of those factors will be subsumed into two major questions:
“Does Barack Obama want Hillary Clinton on the ticket?” and
“Can Barack Obama prevent Hillary Clinton from being on the ticket if he doesn’t want her?”.
Obama’s campaign for the Democratic nomination has been called “the greatest upset in American political history”, but it will pale in comparison to the deftness and intelligence it will take to keep Hillary Clinton from becoming #2. (of course, if the campaigns were harbingers, the biggest obstacle Clinton will have to overcome may well be her own self) She cannot appear to “want it” too much, but she must constantly remind the nominee, the media, and her core supporters that “she has not ‘given in’, is the “best” selection in terms of the general election battle to come (in their opinion), and that she has ‘earned’ it”.
The corporate media will greatly determine the efficacy of her campaign by how much and how often, and in what light, they discuss her “assets and liabilities” (including polling) as well as the trends in polling matchups between Obama and McCain. The number of defections of pledged/endorsed delegates from Hillary Clinton to Obama, and the publicity accrued to them, will also play a key role in the determination.
At some point during the next 10 weeks, Barack Obama will make an “announcement” based purely on political calculus. Whether to “select” Hillary Clinton as his choice for VP or someone else. The calculations will be based on the questions of “is it ’safe’ (both choosing her or someone else), will she help or hurt more (in both the election contest and if successfully elected, afterward), and how do the majority of those 4000+ Democratic Party delegates feel, or would react, were Obama to be bold?”
Ultimately it is the communicated preferences of the Democratic Delegates/Party Leaders who will decide. Their self-interest derived conclusions will determine Obama’s. If they see a viable way to put an end to Clintonism and it’s inherent risks, in the form of Hillary’s VP quest, and they desire to do so, they will indicate so via back-channels. If the majority feels otherwise, they will be far more public in their assertions.
Watch the major media for clues. The polls highlighted, how often Hillary Clinton is covered as well as Obama’s VP “search”, delegate defections/assertions, anything “out-of-left-field”, and particularly the statements/actions by former President Clinton.
For every day that passes, as one after another, VP possibilities are featured in the news campaigning at Barack Obama’s side, as well as every time Hillary (or Bill) Clinton is featured in a headline or cable TV news story, the equation will change. And for all of Hillary’s problems with ‘math’ this year, she is an expert at the kind of ‘political calculus’ needed to secure the VP spot. It will take a true political genius, and some luck, to thwart her. (again)
Time will tell. (as of 9June08, i’d rate it 50/50)