Down Ballot Prognosticating II
February 24th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
We expected record turnout for the Texas Democratic primary. Early voting is starting to indicate it will be bigger than anyone imagined. There a number of explanations for what’s driving folks to the polls: the still-heated contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, a burning desire to emerge from the darkness after almost eight years of a dreadful presidency, and an ability by Obama to bring out young voters who typically do not participate. In most of Texas’ major cities well over half of those who have voted early either had no recent history of voting in a primary, according to a couple of consultants with whom we’ve talked.
What will these new voters mean for the general election in Texas? If Democrats can take advantage of it, it’s quite possible that the transformation from red state to blue might get a jump-start this November. Low turnout has favored incumbents. The new numbers could spell doom for some incumbents in low turnout districts.
Typically campaigns target frequent voters first, the folks who participated in past primaries. These voters don’t need as much persuasion to vote, it’s already a habit for them. It’s not as expensive to find them, since they already have a history. They are the low-hanging fruit of political campaigns. After March 4, this orchard will probably grow by two to three times. Irregardless of which candidate they choose, Democratic voters will leave a record that down-ballot general election candidates can follow. And follow it they will.
Of course, candidates will still need money to reach those folks and let them know they exist. One telling statistic that politicos will scrutinize after March 4 is the down ballot drop off. How many folks voted the top couple of races and then just stopped voting? This will be important for state representatives and other down-ballot candidates. It will indicate how much campaigns will have to invest to get people to vote. On the bright side, they already know that new voters will be receptive to a message of change. Knowing who they are and where they live allows for efficiencies such as getting neighbors to talk with each other, put up yard signs, and block walk.
This will be the cycle where Republicans will pay the most dearly for the greed they showed in legislative redistricting in 2001. Those tightly drawn districts in the suburbs of major Texas cities are growing more Democratic by the minute. Anglo Republicans are moving to the exurbs and African Americans and Latinos are taking their place. The challenge of finding these new residents and getting them to vote just got a lot easier.
One area that will be particularly fun to watch is Senate District 10 in Fort Worth. Republican incumbent Sen. Kim Brimer is in deep trouble in his battle to fend off Democratic challenger Wendy Davis. This area is a major focus for the Democratic presidential candidates. The senate district already has deep pockets of hardcore Democrats. These are the folks that keep sending our patron saint of lost causes Rep. Lon Burnam back to the House. Brimer’s district features Democrat Dan Barrett, who shocked pundits when he beat a slew of Republicans in a special election for Republican Rep. Ann Mowrey’s District 97 seat. Primary turnout will certainly help him hold onto the seat. Another Republican who could fall in Brimer’s district is incumbent Republican Rep. Bill Zedler in District 96. Zedler has a strong challenger in Democrat Chris Turner. Zedler won his last race with just 52 percent of the vote against an underfunded unknown. Only about 37,000 people voted. The margin of victory amounted to little more than 3,000 votes.
If Democrats target the close districts, focusing on the urban areas of the state where they are strong and half of Texas’ voters live, this could be an historic year. Or, being Democrats they could let it slip away. As Leland Beatty, an Austin-based political consultant told us, it’s great if there is lots of crop in the field but if you don’t have the diesel to harvest it…
February 29th, 2008 at 10:39 am
[…] talked a bit about what record turnout in the primary will do for down-ballot races in the general election in November. Now it’s time to speculate on what this could mean for […]
March 4th, 2008 at 11:39 am
[…] generally is the Democratic primary, 40.1 percent are new primary voters. As we’ve discussed before, if Democrats can identify what motivates these folks and dedicate resources to getting them out […]