Obama, Gone to Texas
February 20th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Barack Obama held a huge rally at Reunion Arena in Dallas this afternoon, a day after an estimated 19,000 saw him speak at the Toyota Center in Houston last night. Dallas and Houston could both be fountains of votes for Obama in the critical Texas primary. Both cities potentially have a lot of young voters and African-American voters, two demographics in which Obama does very well.
And the early, early voting numbers show the makings of a stunning turnout in those cities.
Turnout on the first day of early voting was up all across Texas, according to initial numbers from the Secretary of State’s office. But Houston and Dallas were off the charts — the numbers show a 10-fold increase over 2004. In Harris County four years ago, only 728 people showed up for the Democratic primary on the first day of early voting. Yesterday it was 9,243.
In Dallas, the first-day turnout jumped from 913 in 2004 to 8,615 yesterday. That would seem good news for Obama. Other urban counties such as Travis (Austin) and Bexar (San Antonio) showed six-fold increases. In El Paso, it tripled.
Turnout was up too in the Rio Grande Valley, an expected Clinton stronghold, but the increase wasn’t as dramatic. In Hidalgo County, the number of voters rose from 3,858 (2004) to 5,793 (2008).
David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager, told Texas reporters this afternoon on a conference call that the campaign has emphasized ushering supporters to the polls early and was very encouraged by the early voting numbers so far. Early voting ends Feb. 29.
Plouffe said he expects a tight vote in Texas. “If it is [a close margin], then the Clinton campaign certainly did not accomplish what they need to accomplish, which is big margins in big states to erase a dangerously large pledged delegate lead,” he said. “They can’t be in the close-outcomes business anymore.”
He estimated that Obama leads among pledged delegates (those would be the run-of-the-mill, non-superdelegate kind) by 159 after the big wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii last night. Because the Democratic Party apportions delegates so evenly, it’s difficult for Clinton make a comeback. Plouffe said that to close that delegate gap, Clinton must win most of the remaining states by 20-point margins.
The Clinton campaign didn’t contest that math. But in a conference call of their own earlier in the day, Clinton advisers laid out a different strategy. They contended Clinton need not catch Obama among pledged delegates, but simply stay close enough to use superdelegates to overtake him for the nomination at the end.
Either way, Clinton needs a healthy win in Texas. And the early voting numbers might spell trouble.
February 21st, 2008 at 4:50 pm
[…] has begun—Underreported storyline alert! Texas has already started to vote, and turnout is huge—10 times huger than 2004 in some parts. Considering people are already voting and polls suggests it’s […]
February 21st, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Being originally from Texas (in Colorado), I really really hope this goes to Obama. I think it will. There are many reasons why it would particularly help Texas, from better education partly because of reducing other expeditures such as the war, to creating a unified America. His appeal to both sides of the aisle will bring more positive bills to pass.
Please wear your vote. Show your support with shirts that contribute to the campaign. barackstar08.com
February 21st, 2008 at 5:18 pm
due to the particularly peculiar nature of the distribution of delegates system in the TX primary, even overwhelming margins for HRC in the rural, Latino-heavy districts will, at best, offset Obama’s likely prevailing in the urban districts (whether by 1 vote or 100,000)
as it stands now, without some major event during the next 10 days re-calibrating the contest on a seismic scale, the best that HRC can hope (pardon the pun) to achieve is a TIE. (in delegates awarded, and “close” in popular vote totals)
such an outcome will diminish considerably her “argument” for the nomination, in the case of neither achieving the necessary majority of pledged delegates, which is “having won the largest state’s contests, critical for the general election, (CA, NY, FL) the superdelegates should defer to her as the more capable nominee, versus the winner of so many, but small/er states”
and, perhaps most notably, the contributions of money, or their absence, will now begin to play a critical part in the calculus of the Clinton campaign’s future.
February 21st, 2008 at 6:57 pm
The comparison to Hidalgo county is misleading, since turnout there was unusually high in 2004. Actually, though two days of voting, turnout is much higher in Hidalgo (3.9%) than in Harris or Dallas (between 1 and 2%). So I’m puzzled by the conclusion that turnout is heaviest in areas that favor Obama…maybe you could explain.
February 21st, 2008 at 9:17 pm
It’s not just that the turnout was unusually high in 2004, it’s that the turnout in Hidalgo county is always higher than most areas of Texas.
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Roy W,
Just to clear up the confusion. Clearly a lot of Democrats are voting in Hidalgo Co. too. But the increase in turnout from 2004 to 2008 in Houston is just shocking.
In 2004, after two days of early voting, Hidalgo had outvoted Harris Co. by nearly five times (5,580 to 1,578). This year, Harris Co. is now outpolling Hidalgo (18,000 to 10,000). That’s just a huge spike in voters in Harris Co. Not to say that Hidalgo hasn’t shown its own increase. But the point is that, in Houston, new voters are coming out at a much higher rate. That would seem to favor Obama.
February 22nd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
I am so happy to see this. Obama is really making inroads in TX and people are getting his message. I believe he can win TX in the general election…I know its going to be tough but I really think he could do it! This is great stuff…I’m putting my early vote in tomorrow in San Antonio!
Go Obama!
March 4th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
It is time for change I am a U.S. Army Soldier who has deployed twice to Iraq already,stationed at Fort Hood. I am all about the change Obama is going to bring see you at the polls.