Noriega ‘On Target’; Watts’ Wallet Bursts
October 2nd, 2007 at 8:10 am
The two Democrats vying for the chance to face Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) both had a pretty good quarter in terms of fundraising, although comparisons are difficult. It’s like the difference between getting great seats at a ZZ Top show and hiring them for a private party.
State Rep. Rick Noriega reported raising $570,000. While it’s just a drop in the bucket compared to the millions it will take to run statewide in Texas, it proves that Noriega is a serious candidate.
Noriega’s immediate competition, San Antonio attorney Mikal Watts, has yet to report what he raised for the quarter but in the first 30 days of his campaign Watts hauled in twice Noriega’s total, a staggering $1.1 million (but then just to round out the number, Watts loaned his campaign $7.5 million). He also reported clearing something like $40 million in personal income in the last year and a half. Like I said, no comparison.
Noriega proved he’s a factor but the question remains, does Watts’ over-the-top financial advantage outweigh Noriega’s strengths?
As you may know by now, Noriega is a Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, has served on the border and in Afghanistan, has long served in the Texas House, and played a significant role in the end-of-session rebellion against Speaker Tom Craddick. Noriega also has a Hispanic surname in a state where the Latino vote is pivotal in the Democratic primary.
Watts, on the other hand, is a plaintiff’s attorney — excellent at what he does and all — but in terms of a story, it’s about as useful as oven-mitts for backscratching. The Texas GOP does seem to have a certain fixation on Watts, however.
Money sure helps but it ain’t everything. One should keep in mind the lesson of Tony Sanchez (and of countless candidates like him). If the mighty dollar was the only trump card in politics, Sanchez and his personal fortune would have beaten Rick Perry for Texas governor back in 2002 — instead of leading a whole squadron of Democratic candidates off a cliff. Republican Ben Bentzin is another example of a guy whose money just couldn’t get him elected, either in 2002 against Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos or in 2006 against Rep. Donna Howard (D-Austin).
Watts will be able to get his name and message out over the airwaves with his $8.6 million — from TV to radio to the Wheaties Box. Watts may yet even establish a compelling story of his own, if he’s not too hardheaded to listen to his campaign manager. He has a passel of South Texas endorsements but when Hispanics across the state get into the voting booth with a chance to vote for one of their own for U.S. Senate, one wonders what will happen. Noriega has a story that has started to catch on with the netroots and their fundraising arm (he is the favorite candidate of kos, for example). He is also a powerhouse in his hometown of Houston which will account for much of the primary vote.
It’s shaping up to be an interesting primary race. Meanwhile, as of July, the silver-haired Senator and Bush lackey, John Cornyn had more than $8 million in contributions according to his campaign report.
October 2nd, 2007 at 9:20 am
The fact that a candidate as awful as Sanchez who ran a campaign as poorly as Sanchez’s campaign and who still got 40% of the vote confirms that you cannot discount the effect that money can have on the election. Without Sanchez’s money, there is every reason to believe that Sanchez would have done as poorly (or worse) than Akins, who got 33% of the vote.
Noriega is running along the model of Barbara Radnofsky ‘06 (she got 36% of the vote) and Gary Mauro ‘98 (who got 31%).
Who would doubt that Radnofsky and Mauro were much better candidates than Sanchez? The reason Sanchez did 9% better than Mauro and 4% better than Radnofsky and 7% better than Akins was his budget.
The only modest difference between Radnofsky’s and Mauro’s fund raising and Noriega’s is that Noriega is getting a boost from having been recruited to the race by Markos at DailyKos. Look at Noriega’s numbers and you’ll see that he has an overwhelmingly high portion of his donors from outside Texas who gave a small contribution at Markos’s request. This tactic of relying so heavily on out-of-state donations is a recipe for general election disaster (ask Ned Lamont). Moreover, in an election year where we have an excellent chance of picking up Senate seats in New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon, and even Nebraska and Alaska, there will be zero national Democratic Party money for Texas.
There is no historical evidence to believe that Noriega can get above 45% against Cornyn, who’s currently polling over 50%. There is some evidence that the funding Watts will bring can make a 4% to 9% difference — probably a 7% difference.
Watts is an underdog against Cornyn. Noriega is lost cause against Cornyn.
Why is this nomination so important if Cornyn is likely to beat either Watts or Noriega? Because Noriega’s Radnofsky-Mauro campaign model will cause us great distress down ballot in every race from El Paso to Texarkana. Watts will at least fund a huge voter identification/voter registration/get out the vote effort which might possibly be enough to get himself elected (but he’ll still be an underdog), but — more importantly — Watts’ efforts will boost our ticket from top to bottom.
The countywide races in Dallas and Harris counties and the races in the Texas Legislature and the fight to establish a toehold at place 8 on the Texas Supreme Court are all too important to run another Radnofsky-Mauro.
October 2nd, 2007 at 10:21 am
OBAMA-EDWARDS is correct in every way. Also the fact that Noreiga advocates illegal immigration and actually proposed and passed an in-state-tuition bill for illegal aliens that violates Federal law precludes him as a serious state wide candidate.
October 3rd, 2007 at 8:12 am
One of the anonymous bloggers who drafted Noriega into the race is reporting that only 75% of Noriega supporters are from Texas. See http://victoriakos.blogspot.com/2007/10/noriega-to-report-raising-570000.html I expected that Noriega had a lot of support from out of state, but I didn’t think non-Texans (who can’t vote in our primary) would be as high as a quarter of his supporters.