A (Poorly) Calculated Risk
April 27th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
Rep. Betty Brown’s voter ID bill will be heard in Senate State Affairs Monday morning, sponsored by Sen. Troy Fraser (R—Horseshoe Bay), which is further along than a similar bill made it last session.
In 2005, Sen. Rodney Ellis let everyone know he intended to filibuster the bill, or any voter ID amendments that made it to the floor, and with time winding down in the session (that bill didn’t leave the House until May 3), legislators decided they’d rather get work done than face off on voter ID. The filibuster threat wouldn’t have just killed bills in the Senate. House members whose bills were behind voter ID on the Senate calendar threatened to retaliate with a counter-filibuster in their chamber.
Fast forward two years, and with voter ID again in the Senate’s hands, and Ellis again prepared to filibuster (his staff has a cot and reading materials ready), will the fight be any different this time around?
Inaction is always the safest bet at the Lege, and the filibuster threat, along with the two-thirds rule, are major roadblocks for Republicans. It’s unlikely Lt. Gov. Dewhurst will suspend the rule for this, when he left even his own big project, Jessica’s Law, at its mercy. Not all of the Republican leadership, though, puts as much stock in Senate decorum; sensing a lack of enthusiasm from Dewhurst, Texas GOP chairwoman called him out in the press last month, practically ordering him to pass the voter ID bill. Dewhurst wasn’t amused.
The big difference in the debate this time is that more of the arguments are being made with numbers. In 2005, the argument from Republicans was that we just don’t know how many people are out there voting illegally. Thousands? Millions? Who knows? After two years, the figures are starting to come in.
Research so far says that while impersonating a legal voter is pretty rare (mentioned on page 9 of this Election Assistance Commission report), states with photo ID requirements take a serious hit in voter turnout that effects minority voters worst of all. (The original research behind that story is here.) Meanwhile, Republicans have been busy canvassing county clerks for instances of fraud at the polling place to back up their claims — though none have been prosecuted, or officially investigated in Texas.
Judging from last Monday’s floor debate, all the numbers in the world won’t make this debate any smarter. Both sides came with their bullet points, news clippings and stats. Brown waved a stack of papers she said were records of dead people voting; Rep. Scott Hochberg pointed out that the papers relied on rootsweb.com to prove the person had really died. When Rep. Rafael Anchia said that out of about 20 million Texans, 10 percent don’t have a photo ID, Brown said she didn’t trust those numbers, right after she said 10 percent of 20 million is 200,000.
This ability to take the same stats and see totally different realities was especially clear Monday morning before the debate. Outside on the Capitol steps, a gaggle of Democratic legislators and interest groups warned against the voter ID bill, saying Texas can’t afford to make it any tougher to vote, when our voter turnout is lower than almost any other state’s.
Once they wrapped up, Secretary of State Roger Williams held a press conference inside, to congratulate Travis County for having the state’s best election turnout last November. “Our goal,” Williams said, “has always been to have one hundred percent of Texans voting.”
April 27th, 2007 at 6:59 pm
This was much needed for Texas. Thankfully there are really Republicans left.