The Texas Observer

The full results of a much-discussed survey by the Republican firm Hill Research showing the weakening GOP brand in Texas have been released. The details are stunning. Take for example this slide:

Got that? In a head-to-head matchup today between a generic Democratic candidate for governor and a generic Republican, the Democrat starts out with a 13 percent advantage. In a state rep race, the Democratic advantage is 14 percent.

What is it about the Texas GOP that voters don’t like?

Voters think the Republicans are arrogant, racist, corrupt and angry. While they think Democrats are smart, innovative, reformers, fair, thoughtful and - perhaps most important - the party of the future. As Hill Research notes, “Long-term, this is simply untenable.”

What’s going on out there to produce such profound distaste with the Texas GOP? After all, this is the party that currently controls all statewide elective offices and both chambers of the Texas Legislature.

Even Texas voters are sick of Bush. That much is evident. But Republicans in time can overcome the Bush problem. More worrisome for the GOP in this state is that half of the voters surveyed cited a lack of appeal to young people and Hispanics, the most important demographic groups of the future.

Based on their survey results, Hill slices the voting population into five distinct segments: Enduring Republicans (21%), Emerging Republicans (10%), Critical Middle (25%), Emerging Democrats (17%), and Enduring Democrats (27%). It is the Critical Middle - those “not in either camp solidly - that Republicans must win to hold onto power. This group is heavily male, under age 50, self-described moderate and/or independent, focused on fiscal rather than social issues.

Hill warns in no uncertain terms that for GOP campaigns to succeed they must wrap up 80 percent of the Critical Middle. “This isn’t ‘optional’ - anything less means Republicans lose.” The Texas Republican Party, controlled in large part by religious conservatives, is going to have to make some serious changes to accommodate these folks. This group could not give a hoot about immigration (only 15% said it was the most important issue vs. 38% of the Enduring GOP). The Critical Middle also doesn’t care much for “traditional values” (8% said it was the most important vs. 16% of the Enduring GOP and 19% of the Emerging GOP). What they do rate as important are cutting property taxes (17% said it was the most important vs. 15% of the Enduring GOP), child healthcare (19% vs. 2%), and investing in education (20% vs. 9%).

Because this survey is meant as a wake-up call to complacent GOPers, Hill has some recommendations for strategists and politicians on how to reach that Critical Middle.

The danger, of course, in appealing to the Critical Middle is pissing off the Loony Right, err… Enduring GOP. But, Hill emphasizes, not acknowledging and adapting to political realities will result in a Colorado-style meltdown for the party.

The Hill survey shows that Democrats have a golden opportunity to make major gains in Texas. But Texas Democrats - as was said of Yasser Arafat - have been known to never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

Four months have passed since the Observer’s Hole in the Wall story came out. The story focused on the struggle of 72-year old Eloisa Tamez and 76-year old Daniel Garza to save their properties, which have been designated for destruction by a border fence. Meanwhile, the planned fence will bypass the wealthy in the area, such as Dallas billionaire Ray Hunt. (According to Forbes magazine, Hunt ranks at number 292 on their list of the richest people in the world.)

The Observer article prompted much debate and discussion as to whether the border fence was biased toward lower income people. A working group of faculty and students at the University of Texas at Austin Law School have now released a statistical study that illustrates a divide between rich and poor when it comes to the border fence placement.

The group has submitted their findings to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, an intergovernmental body of the Organization of American States. The Commission monitors compliance by member states, including the United States, with issues of human rights and international law.

Dr. Jeff Wilson, assistant professor in the Department of Chemistry and Environmental Sciences at The University of Texas at Brownsville, conducted the statistical study. He found that “The border wall and the necessary taking of property resulting from its construction will disproportionately impact poor Latino immigrant families.”

Wilson analyzed data for the Cameron County portion of the fence.

He divided the study into “gaps” and “fence” to determine if there was any significant statistical difference between those who will have the border fence on their property and those who won’t get a fence. Wilson found that the group who won’t get the fence are older, wealthier, more likely to be Anglo and not recent immigrants.

Many landowners like Tamez say that Secretary Chertoff and Homeland Security have never adequately explained to landowners why their houses are being targeted for a fence while other properties are not on the list.

Landowners have felt for some time that income level and ability to defend oneself, eg. the number of lawyers one can hire, has something to do with the equation.

The group also found other human rights abuses including: violations of the rights of indigenous communities, and severe degradation of the environment.

The working group is asking the Commission to bring up their findings at its July meeting and to hold a hearing on the Texas-Mexico border wall in October.

Bad news for Texas.

State Demographer Steven Murdock has been nominated to serve as Director of the U.S. Census. For years Murdock has been a lone voice in the wilderness, insistently warning Texans about the demographic changes on the horizon. While he always emphasized that he just delivers the numbers, the conclusions to be drawn from his data are inescapable. Without more public investment in health and education, Texas is going to face a rocky future indeed.

Here is an interview Murdock did with the Observer in 2005.

Murdock has delivered his powerpoint lecture, the Texas Challenge, all over the state. But while those in power in Austin know the numbers, they have been painfully slow to act on them. If Murdock’s nomination succeeds and he leaves Texas, one has to wonder who will carry on his clarion call.